Death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi and the geopolitical impact

Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s President, and eight others, including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, died in a helicopter crash on May 19. As Iran mourns its President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials killed in a helicopter crash, the world, particularly the middle east and the west is closely watching the aftermath and the implications on geopolitics in and around Iran.

The timing :

It was obvious from the get go given the nature of the accident, endless speculations are bound to fly across all over the internet. Especially at the time of an ongoing war between Israel- Gaza with Raisi openly expressing his support to Hamas and its brutal attacks. Any consequences outside of Iran will depend entirely on who Iran blames for the crash, rightly or wrongly. 

Domestically, Iran wasn’t doing much well either. There had been a significant increase in protests and rebellion against the regime for its treatment of women, amongst other human human rights violations.

Was this an accident? With recent events is this too good of a coincidence?

It is highly likely that Israel could be involved in something like this. Both countries have always been in each other’s throats way before the Israel-Gaza conflict. If this is their doing, this stands as a huge symbol of payback and otherwise victory for them to take down the number 2 of Iran. Especially after Iran dropped numerous missiles on Israel as a retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus, majority of which were defied by their Iron dome defence system.

It was reported that the helicopter carrying the president and other officials was the Bell 212, which is manufactured in the US. For Iran to have an American helicopter while being under strict sanctions for years does raise some questions.

 

It was also reported that the helicopter being an old model whose production stopped about 30 years ago, didn’t help with handling the weather conditions. Officials said that they couldn't get new ones or airplane parts because of the trade sanctions. In reality, Russia and China could have sold them a few civilian helicopters or spare parts, but Putin wasn't really fond of the guy either.

 

But there is the other side of conspiracy as well. He was one of the top two people who were projected to be the most likely to succeed for the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; the other being the supreme leader's son. With this, it becomes way too convenient that now the path is clear for his son to succeed him. Death at a time of heightened tensions with Israel would automatically take away any chances of anyone thinking this could be an internal act.

Or this could simply be a genuine coincidence. The weather, fog to be particular, was really bad in the area as evident from the pictures.

If the fog was this dense to begin with, why would any experienced pilot agree to take off in the first place? Its not like Iran’s President would have pressured them to fly no matter the severe conditions as he himself is widely considered to be a merely a spokesperson, while the supreme leader is the actual one who calls the shots.

On top of that, it took almost 16 hours of rescue operations to find the debris; the fact that it took so long to figure out the location of the plane that literally had the president and foreign minister among other higher officials, also seems fishy.

 

The Impact :

Raisi's death has given a major blow to Iran's political establishment. He became president in 2021, and has been a pretty hardline cleric and close ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Until his death, Raisi was seen as the most likely successor to Khamenei. His sudden death has left a power vacuum at a time when the Islamic Republic faces mounting domestic and international challenges, including Iran's stagnating economy mounted by sanctions, and rising tensions with the West and regional rivals like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

But Raisi was also Iran's top diplomat, so to speak. Among Raisi’s major achievements was the Iran-Saudi deal, brokered by China. He also contributed to developing closer relations (strategically and economically) with China and Russia, which is considered a huge deal considering Russia had closer relations with Iraq who, is not very much in good terms with Iran post the Iran-Iraq war.

Iran under Raisi’s leadership also doubled down on its support for the axis of resistance (Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah)

His death deprives Iran of that role in the middle of high-stakes issues like the stalled nuclear deal (which otherwise would have expanded the country’s nuclear programme) and support for militant groups. Amir-Abdollahian, the foreign minister who was close to the Revolutionary Guards, had overseen a more confrontational foreign policy and hence was a top diplomat. Instability in Tehran could harden the regime's stance towards the West while leaving it more dependent on Russia and China (which is probably what they want).

At the same time, Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian's demise could disrupt Iran's recent easing of strained relations with Saudi Arabia and embolden Israel, further risking regional escalation.

This has paved the path to an interesting power struggle between the conservatives and reformists, which would define the future of Iran in the years to come.

With the upcoming elections on 28 June, 2024, this complicates Khamenei’s succession planning and further takes Iran’s domestic politics a few steps back. Not to forget the massive mess this will cause in the Iranian leadership now that new contenders will be arising out of nowhere in their quest and greed for power.

For Iran this could go forward in two ways: Take this as an opportunity to reformulate the entire government; kickstart a revolution or a civil war and get into the reformist action.

Or we are staring down at years of chaos, potentially including war and further death and starvation. Worst case scenario is someone more abusive and less competent takes power.

To be honest it’s too early to tell since all the current evidence points to the incident being entirely accidental in nature, and hence might not lead to any particular escalation on the part of foreign state actors like Israel.

The big question is whether it leads to a domestic power struggle, where the leadership is ultimately weakened if not outright toppled. While this seems less impactful for now, in the long term, this could potentially have major geopolitical implications.